Performance of the Old Mill Portfolios
Since the last insight and indeed since the beginning of the year, portfolios have been largely flat, swinging between hope that inflation is slowing and interest rate rises may soon peak, to fear that inflation may be more embedded and interest rates may keep rising.
There is an old investment saying that ’stock markets climb a wall of worry’, meaning that despite a poor economic outlook there can still be stock market growth. This is largely down to the forward-looking nature of markets. Talk of potential recession and global events are already priced into company valuations. Prices may still fall if events turn out to be worse than expected, but there can still be rising stock markets in the face of certain events such as an economy actually going into recession.
Attempting to time when it may be best to invest and especially when looking to invest for the long term could prove to be an expensive delay. There is no right time to invest and in fact, when things feel uncertain, this can often prove with the benefit of hindsight to be an opportune time to invest. We are firm believers in the mantra that investing is about time in the markets not timing the markets.
16th June 2023
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Gavin Jones See profile
Performance since the last insight (from Friday 28 April to Friday 9 June)
Portfolios were largely flat in the period since the last insight but there were falls in value as the Debt ceiling deadline in the US approached. A last-minute agreement and the passage of this bill through Congress saw a global relief rally at the beginning of June.
Performance over the last year (up to Friday 9 June)
Looking back over the last year, performance across most portfolios has been negative. This has been due to a combination of falls in defensive assets as the expectation of interest rates rose and pressure on equities from the economic pressures and more negative outlook for companies in this environment.
Longer term performance of standard portfolios (up to Friday 9 June)
Investing is a longer-term pursuit and taking a look at the ten-year graph to June, the portfolios are showing a more robust picture depending on the risk you have taken.
Sustainable portfolios performance since the last insight (from Friday 28 April to Friday 9 June)
Sustainable portfolios performance has been slightly higher than standard portfolios. Global equities, with the US in particular buoyed by the increased comment in the news of Artificial Intelligence has boosted companies involved in this area. The sustainable portfolios have a higher weighting towards global equities. Standard portfolios have an overweight to the UK, which has lagged over the last few months due to, among other things, pressure on commodity prices, with the UK market overweight in mining companies.
Performance over the last year (up to Friday 9 June)
The impact of global stocks outperforming the UK stock market has also meant sustainable portfolios have outpaced standard portfolios over the year.
Longer term performance of Sustainable portfolios (up to Friday 9 June)
As the sustainable portfolios have only been available for the last five years this is a shorter timeframe but still showing the potential upside over longer periods.
Below shows the performance of a number of asset classes since the beginning of the year and the annualized return over five years as at close of play on Wednesday 31 May.
